A GLANCE AT NIGERIA DEMOCRACY FOR A PROPER UNDERSTANDING OF 2023 GENERAL ELECTION

Nigeria democracy had been applauded severally by the western countries for its stability. And envisaged as a microcosm of the United States political system, available for other Africa countries to emulate. Since Nigeria independence in 1960, the country had faced both positive and negative challenges. No doubt, she got her independence in platter of gold, probably as a result of the political intrigue played out by our political ancestors, which unknowingly was politically motivated and deceptively orchestrated by the colonial masters whose genuine intention was not to bequeath the country’s administration completely but to always have a say. This method ushered in the era of political indolence and ostentatiousness among our leaders and in turn, hindered them from fighting for true political, economic, socio-cultural cum spiritual freedom and emancipation.

The endemic corruption cum negligence that followed suit, resulted to series of coup d’état and countercoup. The quasi-democracy put in place in the late 1959 suffered neglect. This eventually made Nigeria no different from her colonial past. In this unprecedented all round beleaguered situation, Nigerians still believed that democracy remained the only way forward. In 1979 and 1993 respectively, Nigerians pushed indefatigably for reinstallation of democratic principles via democratic government. These efforts were thwarted, beholding the khakitocrats, those in the corridor of power fencing up the government. Obviously, through the changing of title from military head of state to president, the introduction of diarchic government and the late enacting of self-centered constitution of 1990s.

Eventually, democratic government found its way back into the political hemisphere of Nigeria in 1999, after the death of late General Sani Abacha. His crucial death was a seizure of military interregnum and thus, paved way for a pseudo cum embryonic form of democracy, trajectory from an interim government to a full fledge democratic government conspicuously ushering us into the fourth republic. Olusegun Obasanjo being the first president of the fourth republic, savored this opportunity, basically by putting structures in place to retain, sustain and consolidate the democratic system. Howbeit, the thriving of the democratic system had not been without battle for survival.

There had been instances of politically unbridled turmoil concealed among the elites about the battle geared towards the return of the military. This speculation got to a visible height prior the 2015 general election. There was high tension and heavily heated politics. The opposition party was ready for a dash political play. The incumbent president, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan was tense up as to the way forward. With the aid of intelligent report and politics of psychology, he was able to forestall the sinister atmosphere that was lurking around. This step was unnoticed but saved a whole lot. The call to congratulates his opponent was a priceless relief. Thereby, rubbishing western prediction on Nigeria imminent disintegration before 2020.

Progressively, 2019 election came and went. Beholding the ebb and flow of Nigeria electioneering process of every four years’ interval. Now, 2023 is around the corner. The political tense is mounting up as usual. Parties in charades and broad daylight show of shenanigan. Amateur hocus-pocus game of blame against the vice president by another self-made lord aspirant, within the same political party. Away from this, is the uncoordinated, unsettled and indifferent political behavior by the opposition party, who was largely expected to put on the five basic approaches for resolving conflicts such as; avoidance, accommodation, compromise, collaboration and positive competition to ensure they win back the bleeding heart and starved appetite of many Nigerians. Nigerians are generally at the onlook with many hissing through, without sighting any possible solution in the near future or ready to suggests remedies, as many of them hold tenaciously to the bandwagon that votes do not counts in this great country of ours.

Fighting this unpatriotic mentality, comes the challenge of insecurity. The problem now is not only on how to reorient the masses against the bandwagon but to revitalize the minds of young Nigerians against the fear associated with not voting and insecurity. Because common sense would make us to understand that failure to vote is failure among other things, to fight insecurity. Since obviously, the incumbent government and the military personnel have tried their best possible and using all the instruments at their disposal to fight insecurity, yet have failed woefully. Hence, the only option before us now, is to join the military to address this malaise by going back to our various communities to register and or retrieve our voters card, and proceed to our various polling units to cast our votes personally for our presumed, agreed, verified and credible candidate. As new leaders could possibly mean new era.

However, the saying, it is easier said than done can’t be disregarded here. As it is in the air that Nigerians are good in “saying” than “doing”. For this reason, there is need for continuous engagement of the masses by non-governmental organizations. Without mincing word, the government and the governed are no longer aliens of the knowledge of failure of both side. Nigeria have been bedeviled by leadership and followership problem. With the leaders exploring in their rots and failing to grasp reality, that one day the talakawa’s, the downtrodden will rise up against the owambe political apostles and crack down the entire system. And the followers hitherto, have kept encouraging the selfish leaders in their barbaric ways of leadership by extending hands of greed and tirelessly pursuing uncultured recognition, instead of putting up a healthy fight to change the ailing status-quo and find a place in the national anthem as inclusive, “in the service of our father’s land” and to be part and parcel of the “labour of our heroes’ past”. No doubt, the catastrophic attitudinal representation of the government and the governed had expressly placed the country in a state of mayhem and derision.

But in this confuse state, lies the hope that comes with democracy. The principle of democracy that advocates the continuous changes of government at every constitutionally agreed interval or specific period, provides an avalanche chance of righting the wrong and or wronging the right. Fortunately for everyone, Nigerians are already in their most worsening situation and the only morally acceptable option left, is providing a leader pregnant with solutions and clothed with wisdom. Else, any irrational sliding, might results to complete balkanization of the country or absolute comatose in all fabric of the nation.

2023 ANOTHER YEAR OF GRACE FOR NIGERIANS TO DECIDE

Unlike every other election, the upcoming 2023 election appeared to be the most contested election. With parties witnessing declaration of interests by large numbers of parties’ faithful. The people democratic party (PDP) and All Peoples Congress (APC), have not been any different in this development. Currently we have more than five people indicating interests for the post of the president from each of the different political parties. Again, one would have thought that with the hike in price of APC presidential form, which amounts to 100 million naira per aspirant, there would have been sudden reduction in numbers of aspirants but unfortunately, more people are getting set to participate. I threw a question to the tin air, only to get an answer that read thus;
“the weakness of the constitution and perversion in place of the supposed institutions who were responsible to recall an unworthy representatives or impeach an erring or tiring executive, remains the reason for the massive declaration, since the easiest way to change an erring elective leader is every election year”.
With the knowledge of this, democracy have proven to be an integral part of Nigeria constitutionalism. Since apparently, the rule of law appears to be struggling and suppressed by those in the helm of affairs. In other word, the continue survival of the country means continuous adherents to democratic rules and principles.

A CLOSE LOOK AT THE VARIOUS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ASPIRANTS

There is need for a brief look at the various aspirants one after the other. attention will be directed to their capacity, as well as their areas of differences. We would also try to draw a nexus between aspirants, so that in subsequent event they will relates better.

BOLA AHMED ADEKUNLE TINUBU: Bola Ahmed Tinubu was born on the 29th of march 1952. He is married to a current serving Nigeria senator with the name Oluremi Tinubu. He is an accountant and a politician. His success so far can be attributed to his vast knowledge in financial management. After his education in the united states of America, preemptive of the tasks that await him in future, decided to stay back abroad to work in challenging environment so as to garner enough experience that would enable him impacts heavily, positively and meaningfully back to his home country. Just as he thought abinitio, he made his “past fear a present confident”. He served as a senator from 1979 to 1983 (in the third republic) and a governor from 1999 to 2007 (in the fourth republic).

Tinubu impacts and love for his mother land cannot be over emphasized. He was among the top activist and fighter for the return of democracy. He dared the military government, this was the reason he was forced into exile in 1994 by Sani Abacha military regime. He eventually made it back to the country after General Sani Abacha kicked the bucket in 1998. His capacity and influence had made it possible for any political party he is a member to, a great threat to other opponent or opposition political parties. His political career begun fully in 1992 when he became a member of Social Democratic Party and moved on to formed the National Democratic Coalition. He became the Governor of Lagos state under the coverage of Alliance for Democracy. He worked hard to overturned the dominance of the people democratic party by uniting all the fragmented opposition political parties together with the name; all progressive congress, to become a formidable force. As he may have it, in 2015, the ruling political party was unseated by the merged opposition parties, largely by Tinubu intelligent, financial and spiritual efforts. His ruggedly and welcoming political vulgarity have made democracy beautiful and an interesting practice in Nigeria.

IS BOLA TINUBU FIT TO CONTEST FOR NIGERIA PRESIDENT?

The above question is a direct question that demand “Yes or No”. it will be nice to reiterate the question again. Is Asiwaju of Lagos state also known as Jagaban fit to contest for the position of Nigeria president? The answer is yes, he is fit. Is he qualified? Yes. Does he have the right to contest? Yes, just like every other adult Nigerians. Should Tinubu go ahead to contest? It depends. So why do you say it depends? it depends because Tinubu has done so well “in making” than “in being”.

1. “IN BEING”; He was a senator for Lagos west senatorial district just to prepared him for the tasks ahead and helped him understand the working of Nigeria political system. He became the governor of Lagos state not just because he is ready-made for the position but to genuinely manumit Lagos State from her colonial filthiness. This is evidence of his battle with the federal government of Nigeria. Revenue allocation to Lagos State was suspended, financial concern from federal government to Lagos state government was ignore to oblivion. Yet, he saw this as an opportunity to explore the real capacity of Lagos and not to yield to culpability. Apparently Lagos wasn’t a poor state. She was sometimes a crown colony and also the capital of Nigeria. The place of the water access abroad and the opportunities it creates for businesses, made the state a quasi-country. And as one-time crown colony and capital of Nigeria, Lagos State was home to so many industries, factories, businesses, families, foreigners and brain-drains. This means that Lagos unlike every other states in Nigeria was doing well and ahead of others. But the most celebrative and amazing aspects of this whole event was the place of Tinubu capacity, intelligent, team-spirit and capabilities to stable and geometrically accelerates the growth of Lagos state not minding the distractive situation from the federal government. This is a prove that Tinubu is not a lazy leader or one engulf in ostentatious way of life. In abridgement, Tinubu cleared the path that Lagos state is toeing hitherto. The path of competitive infrastructural developments and capacity building.
2. “IN MAKING”: Tinubu in no doubt, is a phenomenal politician. His strategies are unreadable and indecipherable by spoilers. Only the progressive minds can predict his moves. In the west, in terms of contemporary politics, he has emerged as a political oracle. The sudden struggle by one of Osun state bigwig politician of the all progressive congress, in the race for who becomes the next governor of Osun State and the unsuccessful outcome in the primary, is trickled down to his fall out with Bola Tinubu. And besides, it is in record that Bola Tinubu made Rauf Aregbosora what he is today. He once served as Lagos state commissioner for work under Bola Tinubu in 1999.

More so, the current vice president Professor Yemi Osinbajo is in limelight today because God through Tinubu made it possible. Starting from the various portfolio he held in Lagos State down to his present position as the vice president of Nigeria. It was through accommodation and compromise from the APC chieftain Bola Tinubu, that Osinbajo present position was made possible. Another outstanding national politician, the person of Babatunde Fashola was also a product of his good and wise political creation. Also, Bola Tinubu moved to reconciled all the agile fragmented opposition political parties to unseat the ruling party (PDP) remains a phenomenon in the minds of so many young and old Nigeria politicians. President Muhammadu Buhari victory in 2015 and 2019 were largely the results of the good coordination of Ahmed Tinubu and some other APC key stakeholders. This is not inclusive of the various states governors he had helped won their states gubernatorial seats, and his uncontestable inclusive governments – where both foreigners and indigenes are not segregated in holding political offices.

The answer; “IT DEPENDS”: it depends here means an alternative action. With his antecedents and political records, Tinubu will obviously do well as a president if he eventually emerges. Although there will be an unbendable issue which might arise from his age and high probability of imminent amnesia. But this may not be so striking as he would inevitably work with the best team that would help grow Nigeria economy and stable the country for greater developmental opportunities.
On the other hand, Tinubu will also be greatly remembered and his name written in gold if he willfully decides to “Make” another king as he is well known for. The journey to 2023 presidency will be easier for him if he acts as a mother who passionately carry her little child at her back just to help him avoid challenges encountered while making a lone walk. Osinbajo may not be a betrayal as many of Tinubu loyalists allege. If Tinubu decides to handpick and support Osinbajo as his political son, in the race of who plans and executes in Aso Rock for the next four years, it will definitely be a win-win game for duo.

WHAT CHANCE DOES PROFESSOR OSINBAJO HAS TO SUCCEED HIS MASTER?

First, it is important to look at a brief information about Professor Yemi Osinbajo. Yemi Osinbajo is currently the fourth vice president of Nigeria since the emergence of the fourth republic. His emergence as a sole runner of General Muhammadu Buhari in 2015 was a very dicing one. The victory at last, brought his name to the ears of every Nigerian. Oluyemi Oluleke Osinbajo who is a Professor of law, a SAN and a Pastor, was born on 8 march 1957. He has served in various capacities including serving as the Attorney General of Lagos State from 1999 to 2007 under the leadership of Bola Tinubu. Fast forwarding, Osinbajo has shown good leadership since he became the vice president of Nigeria alongside with his master; president Muhammadu Bahuri. His obsequiousness, affability, diligence and commitment to service has distinguished him from so many other high ranking political gladiators.

Reminiscence vividly, in the month of June 2016, May 2017 and even august 2018 and other subsequent times that Buhari handed over the administration of the country to Osinbajo while he Buhari was away in Europe for medical treatments, the nation experienced some drastic positives changes in the area of economy, strengthening of the naira and the taming of the armed forces needless rascality. Yemi Osinbajo demonstrated his leadership by acting without fear or favour. He acted swiftly by sacking the DSS boss Lawal Daura over the blockade of the national assembly. The amazing intervention of the acting president which didn’t go well with some powerful northern political elites saw to the docile apprehension of the vice president from his full constitutional jurisdiction. He was compelled to become more ceremonial in functions than he ought to be, going by the Nigeria constitution. He was subverted from participating in some key responsibilities that have no force of law. The cabals drummed that he was trying to outshine his master. At the dusk of Monday 11 April 2022, after Yemi Osinbajo declared to join the race for 2023 presidency, the hilarious reaction from one of the aid of president Muhammadu Buhari is an attestation to the whole augment.
Finally, Osinbajo appeared to be the most qualified candidates by his actions, track records, academic qualifications, intelligent, previous and immediate experience as an integral part of the ongoing administration, health wise, vocality and his up to date knowledge of the global community. But to realize this dream, he must try his best to be on a neutral ground and not loggerhead with the APC chieftain whom he shared same birth month with, Bola Tinubu. He must play smart and not desperate. He should learn from Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar political friendship.

IS GOVERNOR NYESOM WIKE EVER A THREAT IN THIS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL RACE?

Governor Ezenwo Nyesom Wike who has never been known for playing a desperate politics can also simultaneously not be a great threat in this 2023 general election but his political definition of leniency should never be taken for granted. His guts in democratically installing and uprooting 2019 imposition in Edo state and his personal fight against federal might during the gubernatorial election in Rivers state, orchestrated to remove him from office, should always be a case study.

Governor Nyesom Wike is an Ikwerre man from River state, Nigeria. He was born on the 13th of December 1963. He is currently the two time serving governor of River State. Since the emergence of All Progressive Congress as the dominance and ruling political party in Nigeria, Barrister Nyesom Wike has been a driving force for the survival of the penultimate political party – Peoples Democratic Party. The victory of the opposition party in 2015 saw to the deserting of the onetime booming umbrella by some major stakeholders in the party. Him and few other lovers of the party stood strong to ensure the reemergence of the political party. He supported financially and with leadership. That PDP is strong today is all thanks to Wike.

Coming back to his position in the 2023 presidential race and his resilient to remain afloat in the contest, is a message to the northerners that there are still brave southerners who cannot just be cowed into cowardice. Before this time, there were speculations from some northern unscrupulous elements that the south has no credible candidates matured enough to contests in the 2023 general election. This among other radical issues made the southern governors meet to discuss aggressively on the next action. The governors agreed that power must shifts to the south and it was well established in the minds of every southern governor who were in alignment with the southern region liberation mandate. Governor Wike while observing carefully, noticed that more numbers of southern leaders are already shelving in, for a northern candidate, thus, decided to tighten up.

In addition to this, is the game of dice between the two dreaded and giants’ political parties. Both parties are watching each other closely. Whoever candidate presented by the All Progressive Congress will depend and determines the candidates that the People’s Democratic Party will come out with. So in summary, with better agreement, arrangement, understanding and wide consultation, Governor Wike might drop his ambition for a more pleasing candidate. And to crown it all, Governor Nyemsom Wike share some similarities with Bola Tinubu. Wike is also known for his developmental strides especially in infrastructures. He was able to tame insecurity in the state to the minimum. He is a king maker. He was a key player in the making of His predecessor. The current minister of transportation. He also helped the incumbent Governor of Edo State and his deputy return to power. To say PDP is standing tall today, is also the making of Governor Wike.

ROTIMI AMAECHI THE PRESUMED ANOINTED CANDIDATE OF PRESIDENT BUHARI

Just like Bola Tinubu, Rotimi Amaechi is not only an important member of the All Progressive Congress but an Integral part of it creation, accompanied with his heroic role played in 2015, for the emergence of Buhari as Nigeria President. Amaechi was born on 27th of May, 1965. He is married to Judith Amaechi and a proud father of three boys. Amaechi has had many successes in his political voyage. In 1999, he contested for state house of assembly, won the election and also emerged as the speaker of the house on two consecutive times. In 2007, he was elected as the Governor of River State under the umbrella of PDP and completed his two tenure. The subsequent strained Relationship between him and the then President Goodluck Jonathan made him leave for a more auspicious political party. Currently, He is a an ongoing two-time Minister of Transportation.

Amaechi who shown to have the Niger Delta blood in him had never fail to deliver, as his era brought about railway transport revolution in Nigeria. This revolution has giving rise to a new phase of improve transportation system. His initiatives and other undertaken he has engaged in, as regard performing his duty satisfactorily had gotten him a place in the heart of the president. While many thought that his projects and initiatives are absolutely pro-north and Buhari demands, the Minister has never been bothered about it, as he continues to work assiduously to satisfy the president. The president being aware of his rare loyalty facilitated the issuing of a traditional honorary title from his own state to him as a way of appreciation and saying thank you. This closeness between the minister and the president has created a positive suspicion with so much theories and conspiracies flying through the minister’s ears therefore prompting him to declare for 2023 presidential race with the hope that he would have the president full backing.

Since his declaration, the president has remained mute leaving everyone stranded to the reality of the president choice of candidate. Amaechi who of recent, is facing some internal and unpublished quiet attacked over his comment regarding the Kaduna train invasion by bandits and his outbursts on how some elites have stop his plan from purchasing an advance surveillance technology on the railway track, have made his journey to 2023 presidency not a smooth ride. His supporters who refused to be worried about some power play, are very optimistic that Buhari having seen how Amaechi supported him with all he had in 2015, will also not fail to replicate same gesture. Then if this be the case, the question now is, how strong and grounded is Amaechi in the current APC of 2022 and 2023? The majority of the southerners who are already viewing him as a stooge to the northern elites whom when giving power will end up working for the few northern elites are fast becoming more reserved and withdrawn. But all things being equal, Amaechi if succeeds in winning the minds of Voting-Nigerians and also succeed in becoming the APC presidential flag bearer will have an easy win, as majority of northerners will cast their votes for him, the south-south and south-east will go agog for him and leaving the south west bumbling.

WILL PETER OBI IN REALITY BE THE BIBLICAL REFERENCE OF THE WORD; “WILL ANYTHING GOOD COME OUT FROM BETHLEHEM”?

Since the end of Nigeria civil war and the beginning of the fourth republic in Nigeria. The Igbo people who occupies the south east region of the country have complained of highhandedness marginalization melted on them by the federal government. Their issue has continued to be a subject of discourse especially in areas where they feel neglected or denied in occupying key positions and sincerely, this government has not fail to make their suspicion wrong. While it seems difficult and obvious that succession won’t work or a good alternative to achieving their demands, the regular election embedded in true democratic practice provides again, another avalanche of chance for the Igbos to come together to put themselves back to poise and Peter Obi seems to be one of the way to realizing this.

Peter Gregory Obi was born on 19th July, 1961 and was (is) first a business man before being a politician. He is legally tough and a goal getter. He has never surrendered to intimidation or engulfed in the play of a political timid game. The above words are good interpretation to explaining his battle fought for the retaking and retaining of his governorship mandate as Anambra state Governor between 2006 and 2010. More so, under the umbrella, he joined the former vice president Atiku Abubakar as his running mate in 2019, to participate in one of the most controversial presidential election. But unfortunately lost the election as INEC and the court couldn’t show any difference in their pronouncement.

Conclusively, peter obi is no doubt a force to reckon with. His insight about administration and leadership is secondary to non. When he was the governor of Anambra state he was able to put the state together to become one of the food basket of the nation. He revitalizes exportation of Nigeria local produce and extend the financial derivation tentacles of Anambra state to other state.

COULD 2023 BE FOR ATIKU ABUBAKAR?

The former vice president his excellency Atiku Abubakar is known for his patience and tolerance and his die-hard believe of leading one day as a president of this great country. Even with the various challenges and set back he had experience in this journey, Atiku has never been seen mixing up with vagabonds or creates suspicion of any terrorist behavior as a vendetta for the unfair treatment he presumed may have be melted out to him either by the judiciary or the Independent National Electoral commission.

Atiku Abubakar was born on the 25th of November, 1946, in the town of Jada and a local government area. Atiku is a politician and at same time a business man. He was the vice president of Nigeria from 1999 to 2007. He ran for the Governorship position of Adamawa State consecutively until he was eventually elected in 1998. So this struggle of losing and winning is not something that is so new to him. For the fear of doubt, this 2023 attempts will make it the six times he would be contesting for the seat of the president of Nigeria. And if he is given the ticket again, nothing will definitely stop him from emerging victoriously.

Atiku Abubakar if succeeds in becoming the PDP flag bearer will divide the vote in the north and have a complete vote in the east if an eastern candidate like Peter Obi join as his running mate and lastly, PDP being southern party will also give them an edge. In terms of performance Atiku will do well in economy because of his long and vast experience in management. He is also liberal minded and not conservative. His administration will know how to bridge the insecurity gap and restore the freedom of every single Nigerian.

Conclusively, if there must be Nigeria of our dream then we must wake up to reality and research about every candidate accordingly before casting our votes. We shouldn’t vote because of sentiments or emotion. Sentiment doesn’t end conflict, hunger, unemployment and bad governance but voting credibility and wisely will surely end all these things.

Author;
Comrade Sunday Arimokwu
Qualifications:
Master in Peace and Conflict management
Master in International Affairs and Diplomacy
BSc. Political Science Education
NEBOSH
HSE 1, 2 and 3